Aotearoa’s housing market downturn is in full swing, with most of the country’s suburbs recording a fall in property values in the past three months, with small and rural areas proving the exception.
CoreLogic NZ’s interactive Mapping the Market tool, updated quarterly and compiled using the country’s most comprehensive property data, provides insight into how the value of property varies across cities, across the country, as well as how values have shifted over time.
In the latest update, 803 of the 955 New Zealand suburbs analysed recorded a fall in median values between June and September.
CoreLogic NZ’s Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said it confirmed the extent of the housing downswing and how much it had accelerated each quarter in 2022.
“We’ve seen signs of weakness gathering pace this year as the lagged impact of rate rises, inflation and other economic influences catches up with the market,” Mr Davidson said.
“The winter momentum was most certainly downwards across the country, with the main centres hit hardest. The direction the cycle has been moving in shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.”
Tauranga and Dunedin saw falls across the board while 97% of suburbs in Auckland and wider Wellington (City, Porirua, Upper Hutt, Lower Hutt) fells in value. In Christchurch 92% of the city was impacted and 85% in Hamilton.
Across NZ, 81 suburbs saw median values fall by 5% or more, most notably in Auckland (14), Wellington (23), and Dunedin (17). Of those 81 suburbs with big falls, there were also six apiece in Horowhenua and Whangarei.
In contrast, 152 suburbs nationally still recorded an increase in value, including 27 which appreciated in value by 2% or more. Mr Davidson noted those still rising were generally small or rural areas such as Blakestown in Grey, Halfmoon Bay in Southland, Patea in South Taranaki, Ngatea in Hauraki.
Quarterly value changes by main centre suburbs
Auckland
Over the past three months, 97% of Auckland suburbs have seen a drop in median property value. Almost 180 recorded a fall of at least 1%, and in 14 suburbs, drops of 5% or more were recorded including Glen Eden, Papatoetoe, Henderson, and Panmure.
Mr Davidson said falls of $100,000 or more occurred in seven Auckland suburbs, all of them ‘upper end’ areas where median values are at least $2 million.
Hamilton
Over the past three months, 29 out of 34 Hamilton suburbs saw their median property value drop, and of the five where increases were recorded, only Deanwell and Queenwood registered a rise in excess of 1%. The largest falls were seen in Grandview Heights (-4.8%), Huntington (-3.6%), and Fitzroy (-3.2%).
Tauranga
Median property values in Tauranga fell across the board over the past three months, ranging from a 1.8% decline in Tauranga South to a 5.3% drop in Hairini.
Tauranga still has eight $1 million-plus suburbs, down from 10 in the previous quarter, with Papamoa and Maungatapu dropping out of the exclusive million-dollar club.
Wellington
There have been near universal falls in median property values across the wider Wellington area lately including Wellington City, Porirua, Lower Hutt and Upper Hutt, Falls of at least 7% in the past three months have been recorded in Ranui, Naenae, Wallaceville, Rongotai, and Taita.
Seatoun remains the most expensive suburb with a median value of $1.99 million, which is down 2.9% from June’s level.
Christchurch
The Garden City hasn’t escaped the weakness either, with 76 out of 83 suburbs recording a decline in median property values since June. The largest falls (>4%) were seen in Kennedys Bush, Bromley, and Wigram.
Dunedin
All suburbs in Dunedin saw median property values drop in the three months to September, ranging from -1.1% in Glenleith to -8.2% in Shiel Hill. Maori Hill and East Taieri remain in the million-dollar club, but both have seen values fall since June.
Market outlook
Mr Davidson said while there are still short-term challenges ahead for the market, there were also potential green shoots for next year.
“The rise in mortgage rates over the past year means new borrowers can’t get as much finance, and existing borrowers have to adjust too,” he said.
“But there’s also now a sense of light at the end of the tunnel given the low unemployment figures and forecasts that mortgage rates could potentially be close to a peak. People are adjusting to the new norm, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the market trough in the first half of 2023.”
Meet Kelvin Davidson
Chief Economist
Kelvin joined CoreLogic in March 2018 as Senior Research Analyst, before moving into his current role of Chief Economist. He brings with him a wealth of experience, having spent 15 years working largely in private sector economic consultancies in both New Zealand and the UK.
Full profile