Property market recovery is losing steam

CoreLogic NZ’s interactive Mapping the Market tool reveals 221 of the 938 suburbs analysed saw a drop in property values of at least 1%, including ten which fell by at least 5% over the three months to June.

CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist, Kelvin Davidson pointed out the loss of momentum since March has been evident across both affluent markets and areas better known for affordability.

“On the higher end, Takapuna in Auckland, and Onemana and Tairua in Thames Coromandel saw value drops of 5-6%.

“Suburbs within more affordable price points like Fordlands in Rotorua and Mataura in Gore District saw values fall by 7-9%.”

By contrast, 253 suburbs saw gains of at least 1% in the past three months, with eight up by at least 5% since March.

Mr Davidson highlighted how West Coast was home to some of the suburbs with the most value gains recently.

“If we broaden out to a 12-month horizon, Cobden and Runanga, both in Grey District, were the top two suburbs for growth, at 16.9% and 13.1% respectively. The median values in these two suburbs still sit at around $300,000 or less.”

Across the main centres

Auckland

While a solid portion of Auckland suburbs have seen median property values tick upwards annually, the market has been pretty clearly losing steam over the past three months.

86 of the 199 Auckland’s suburbs analysed have dropped by at least 1% since March, with 13 down by at least 3%. At the other end of the spectrum, only 25 suburbs have risen by at least 1% over the same period.

Herne Bay remains Auckland’s most expensive market with a median value of $3.41m and Auckland Central was the most affordable with a median value of $540,000.

Hamilton

Five suburbs in Hamilton have seen median values rise by at least 5% in the past year, with only Queenwood recording a notable (1.6%) fall. However, values in Hamilton have slowed over the past three months.

Harrowfield was among the three suburbs that dropped by at least 0.5% in the three months to June, but still remains the most expensive suburb with properties in excess of $1.1 million. Meanwhile, Bader was the cheapest ($593,950).

Tauranga

Six suburbs in Tauranga have seen values rise by at least 3% over the 12 months to June, with only the suburb of Otumoetai recording a notable (2.2%) decline in values.

On a timelier horizon, Poike and Papamoa were among seven areas that saw values increase by at least 1% since March, in contrast to the five out of 20 that edged at least 1% downwards.

Mount Maunganui ($1.34m) is most expensive suburb in Tauranga and the cheapest is Parkvale ($678,300).

Wellington

In Wellington, Wilton, Totara Park and Paparangi had standout median value growth of 10-12% over the past year. Like elsewhere, however, Wellington has lost speed in the past few months, with 30 suburbs out of 94 analysed down by at least 1% since March.

Seatoun remains the most expensive suburb ($1.74m) while Wellington Central is the cheapest ($502,100).

Christchurch

Christchurch properties showed market strength with all 83 suburbs analysed recording a rise in median values since June last year. The suburb of Hillmorton has risen nearly 11% over the period.

There are tentative signs however that momentum has faded a little over the quarter, with Lyttelton and six other suburbs dropping by at least 0.5%.

Kennedys Bush is the priciest suburb ($1.71m) across Christchurch, while Phillipstown the cheapest with a median value of $451,600.

Dunedin

Of the 63 Dunedin suburbs analysed, all have seen median property values rise in the past year, with 12 up by at least 5%. Rising faster than the norm were Liberton, Roslyn and Maori Hill, all recording value increases of up to 6-7%.

Dunedin also seems to have cooled a bit in the past few months, with 13 suburbs down by at least 1% since March.

Maori Hill is Dunedin’s only market with a median value at or above $1m, although Vauxhall is catching up with its median value of $970,100. The most affordable suburb is South Dunedin at $420,650.

Property market outlook

Mr Davidson said overall many suburbs have seen a recovery since the troughs over the first half of 2022, but the most recent few months have seen some of that momentum slow and even reverse.

“The turnaround in property values over the past 12 months reflects such factors as the relative resilience of the labour market over that period, and strong net migration.

“The more recent loss of momentum tends to reflect continued affordability pressures and high mortgage rates, the rise in listings on the market, and a turning point for unemployment.

“Tax cuts and looser LVR rules may not boost activity or prices very much in an environment where mortgage rates remain high, although the removal of first home grants and the introduction of DTI limits might not necessarily undermine the market greatly either.”

”All in all, the latest suburb-level figures confirm the market’s recent loss of momentum, and 2024 remains on track to be a pretty subdued year,” he concluded.

Explore the Mapping the Market tool

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